HR/FB Surgers & Decliners Using League-Relative Statcast Power Metrics
The Power Play: Unlocking HR/FB Secrets
Last week, I unveiled a game-changer: a deep dive into league-relative Statcast power metrics, like HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%. These metrics, I discovered, could be the key to unlocking the potential of players' HR/FB rates. The data revealed two distinct groups: those with high relative HardHit% and maxEV but low Barrel% (Group A), and those with low relative HardHit% and maxEV but high Barrel% (Group B). Let's explore the names that fit these criteria in 2025, and what it means for the 2026 season.
Surging Stars: Group A
These players are poised for a power surge in 2026, with the potential to boost their HR/FB rates significantly.
- Bo Bichette: With a career-high HardHit% and maxEV, Bichette's Barrel% took a hit, but his history and age suggest a rebound is on the horizon.
- Brandon Nimmo: Nimmo's power metrics are on the rise, but his Barrel% remains stuck in single digits, making it a tough call for HR/FB growth.
- Carlos Correa: Correa's power metrics are consistent, but his Barrel% and HR/FB rate are in the doldrums. A rebound in Barrel% could mean a boost in HR/FB.
- Francisco Lindor: Lindor's HR/FB rate is steady, but his Barrel% took a nosedive from 2023-2024. A return to double digits could mean a power surge.
- Gunnar Henderson: Henderson's power metrics are on the rise, but his Barrel% dropped back into single digits. A power bounceback is possible, but steals may decline.
- Heliot Ramos: Ramos' power metrics are strong, but his Barrel% is low. An improvement in power could give him shallow mixed league value.
- Jasson Domínguez: Domínguez's raw power is evident, but his swing needs optimization. Regular playing time could unlock his potential.
- Luis García Jr.: García Jr.'s power metrics are on the rise, but his HR/FB rate fell. A rebound in HR/FB is possible, especially with his increasing FB%.
- Trea Turner: Turner's power metrics are steady, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A rebound is expected in 2026.
- Trevor Larnach: Larnach's power metrics are strong, but his Barrel% plummeted. A return to form is possible, especially with a move to a more favorable home park.
- William Contreras: Contreras' power metrics are stable, but his finger injury may have impacted his Barrel%. A healthy return could mean a mid-to-high teen HR/FB rate.
- Yandy Díaz: Díaz's power metrics are steady, but his HR/FB rate has bounced around. A decline in power is possible, especially with his age.
Declining Dynamos: Group B
These players may see a decline in their HR/FB rates in 2026, with potential reasons for the dip.
- Andrew Benintendi: Benintendi's power metrics are steady, but his Barrel% spiked into double digits. A return to single digits is expected, but HR/FB may remain relatively stable.
- Austin Hays: Hays' power metrics are declining, and his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A move to the White Sox may not help his cause.
- Bo Naylor: Naylor's power metrics are on the rise, but his HR/FB rate fell to a career low. A rebound in HR/FB is possible, but his BABIP skills are a concern.
- Brooks Baldwin: Baldwin's power metrics are steady, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A touch of power and speed could make him a deep mixed and AL-Only asset.
- Carson Kelly: Kelly's power metrics are on the rise, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A return to form is possible, but his pace is unlikely to sustain.
- Connor Norby: Norby's power metrics are steady, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. An increase in power is possible, but his Barrel% remains tough to record.
- Dylan Crews: Crews' power metrics are steady, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A decline in power is unlikely, but his injury-marred year may impact his value.
- Kyle Tucker: Tucker's power metrics are declining, but his HR/FB rate is in the doldrums. A move to a more favorable home park may help, but his power metrics are concerning.
